Understanding Your Odds Against Arishem

Arishem decks currently comprise over 30% of the Infinite ladder, down from 70% a week ago. Despite their dominance, especially against decks not running Darkhawk, their win rate in favored matchups rarely exceeds 55%. This article explores strategies to improve your odds in slightly unfavorable matchups against Arishem.

Analyzing Arishem Deck Dynamics

Arishem decks benefit from extra Energy starting from turn 1 and 12 random cards added to their deck. This randomness reduces the likelihood of drawing specific cards and combinations, but they compensate by deploying multiple game-winning cards that don’t require extensive build-around. Interestingly, Arishem decks won’t draw specific cards in more than half of their games, making playing around any specific card often pointless. Instead, a probabilistic approach and risk-taking are crucial.

Key Odds for Arishem Decks

• Loki: Can be played on turn 3 in 25% of games and by turn 4 in 29.2% of games.
• Blob: Can be seen by turn 6 in 37.5% of games
• Sandman: Can be seen by turn 5 in 33.3% of games.
• One of two cards, such as Leech or Loki: Can be played by turn 4 in 50.7% of games.
• One of three cards, such as Leech, Loki, or Doctor Octopus: Can happen by turn 4 in 62.3% of games.
• Two-card combos in turn 6: Can occur in 11.2% of games.

These odds highlight the capabilities of Arishem decks, but we need to delve deeper into their win conditions.

Understanding the Win Conditions

Loki

Loki: Arishem decks, unlike standard Loki decks, often play cards that can’t generate additional cards when Loki isn’t drawn. If Loki isn’t drawn by turn 1, there’s only a 10% chance to draw him by turn 3. Therefore, if your opponent didn’t skip the first turns and Snapped on turn 3, it’s unlikely to be a Loki Snap.

Doctor Octopus & Leech

• Doctor Octopus: While a turn 4 Doctor Octopus play is powerful, Arishem struggles to follow up without supporting cards like Magik. Despite this, Doctor Octopus can still win certain matchups on his own.
• Leech: Effective against ‘On Reveal’ heavy decks. Hide your vulnerability to Leech if possible, or use your cards before they lose their abilities. Recognizing Leech snaps is vital; if they don’t snap a winning Leech play, it’s their loss.

Quinjet, Agent Coulson, and Nick Fury

• Quinjet: Enables unexpected combos, especially when paired with Nick Fury or Coulson.
• Agent Coulson: Increases hand size and can generate significant momentum when played in turn 2 due to extra Energy with random 4 and 5-cost minions.
• Nick Fury: In Arishem decks, he can provide exactly what’s needed 10% of the time. There’s a 38.2% chance to see Blob, Heimdall, Alioth, or Doctor Doom. Assessing these odds is crucial to avoid losing close games.

Other Cards to Watch

• Mockingbird: She is a powerful card that sees play in almost every Arishem deck. It’s good to keep track of the random cards on board.
• Sandman: Emerging as a tech card for Arishem to counter decks playing multiple cards in turn 6. You will face him in exactly ⅓ of your matches.

Turn 6 Probability Table

Arishem under normal conditions would have 15 cards left in the deck on turn 6. The table below shows the odds of your opponent having one of the game-winning cards given the situation. For example, the first column shows the odds of your opponent having the exact card they need to win the game, like Shang-Chi. The second column shows the odds of having one out of two game-winning cards based on the hand size. It could be considered the odds to draw either Rogue or Shang-Chi.

Note: ‘Cards in Hand’ does not include the cards they generated, so make sure to subtract those.

The odds are only in Arishem’s favor when they have 4 or more cards and 3 ways to win the game.

Closing Thoughts

I didn’t cover the odds of having two-card combos on turn 6 because it only happens in about 10% of the games. Unless you know your opponent well or can make a good read, it is not advisable to play around two-card combos against this deck.

There isn’t much to say about random cards, as there are currently 281 cards in the game. Variance is very high, and locations also play a huge role in the performance of random cards. Most 8-cube losses will involve randomly generated cards against Arishem, but you will also get free wins from them.

Conclusions

• Track hand size: Be able to catch Loki and Leech + Sandman + Doctor Octopus Snaps.
• Turn 5: Their main threats will be random cards and Blob on turn 6. Snapping on turn 5 can provide crucial information about their hand.
• Don’t play around a single card: The odds are usually against them having the exact card they need.
• Avoid tilting from random losses: There’s no realistic way to play around random cards, so maintain composure. Don’t throw your phone at the wall.
• Utilize the probability table: Assess your odds on turn 6 carefully. If you aren’t losing to more than two threats, you will be fine in most games.